4-24-13 Einstein: There are lots of rumors and speculation on our dinar investment – but, what is reality and what is truth? The first and primary question would be – will the Iraqi dinar ever be worth more than it is now? The answer to that is absolutely because everything changes over time and clearly Iraq has resources. That only leaves two questions left. When will the Iraqi dinar be worth more and when?
Good questions – glad I asked. Let’s put all our dreams, desires, and needs and in some cases prayers aside and look at things logically. Will we make money on this? Hopefully we will make money on this and most likely will. People like to compare Iraq to Kuwait because their currency is worth $3.51. Kuwait’s GDP this year was about 164 billion U.S. dollars. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kuwait/gdp-at-current-prices-in-us-dollars-imf-data.html
Also, Kuwait’s infrastructure is in place and they have a population of about 3.2 million people to support with that income. http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/kuwait/kuwait_people.html That’s a lot of money per person – about $51,250.00 per person.
Iraq had a GDP in 2012 of 131.3 billion U.S. dollars: http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_official_exchange_rate_2013_0.html
Iraq has about 28 million people. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iraq/population-imf-data.html That’s about $4,678.57 per person. That is not a lot of money. Kuwait’s people live very well and Iraq’s people are living in poverty. We all know the story – no electric half the time, no jobs, little food or clean water and little opportunities at the moment. Will that change? Sure – you decide when after looking at the evidence as we go.
Gurus say Iraq is a rich country – OK, then lets look at the facts and you decide. Basically Iraq needs more money than it is taking in and is running a deficit due to high expenses, here is the 2013 budget – you decide: http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/UNAMI-primer-on-Iraq-Budget-2013.pdf?d9c344
Gurus say Iraq is the fastest growing country in the Middle East. Oh – finally they are correct about something. When you start off broke and in the gutter you better grow fast. However it is like this as an example. “You” hopefully have an annual income don’t you? If you increase your income next year like the projected 10.5% as Iraq is expected to do will you get rich and prosperous? How about adding another ten percent the following year and the year after that? You can look in the budget to see the figures on all this as well as read how much Iraq needs to improve their income just to stay afloat.
Gurus say the Iraqi dinar was worth well over three dollars back in the seventies, so it rightfully should convert back to that again now. Back in the seventies Iraq was using what they call the Swiss dinar. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Swiss_dinar
There were a lot less Dinars (currency notes) floating around back then. Have you read how upset economists are about the U.S. printing so much money every month? The more money in circulation the less each individual dollar bill is worth – thus what we call inflation. Iraq had about 29 trillion dinars in circulation two years ago. They have been rounding them up and diminishing the dinar population – which is a good thing.
Lets say there are 10 trillion dinars still in circulation and they are re-valued to one dollar. That would mean Iraq would need trillions of dollars in reserves to back that sort of money technically – do you think that would even be within the realm of possibilities? Perhaps indirectly, so lets continue. The U.S. has about 1.5 trillion dollars in circulation not including e-money and the U.S. economy is much larger. Hmmm – Houston, we have a problem.
Gurus say Iraq is a rich country because they have so much oil. Well – it’s true. Iraq does have a lot of oil. The problem there is no one cares about that except Iraq. Who on this earth cares or needs Iraq’s oil when it comes down to it. There is no shortage of oil on this planet and with Fracking Technology there won’t be for hundreds of years. Iraq could totally stop drilling and it won’t make a hill of beans to anyone.
The U.S. if it wants to be can be totally energy independent within a number of years. We don’t use their oil anyway. Lots of countries due to Fracking will soon be oil independent and not needing Iraq’s oil at all. Read the Budget report. Iraq needs to diversify real fast according to them.
Gurus say the RI/RV will be cover by the sale of $39.00 oil. Iraq’s budget is based on $90.00 dollar per barrel oil. Selling it for less would bankrupt them – then no RV. Look in the budget link post here
Gurus say Iraq’s income from non oil revenues is growing fast percentage wise. Well – it better. Non oil income is only about 6% of the GDP which doesn’t amount to more than a pimple on the butt of there GDP – big deal there. The U.S. prints more extra spend money each month than that.
Gurus say Iraq has a whole lot of gold. OK great – go get some of it. It was found years ago and is still lying under the streets of Bagdad. Lets tear that city up some more to get to it.
Folks – read the links and decide for your self what sort of shape Iraq is in. Basically they are a worn torn country that can’t even support themselves let alone be some financial saviors of the world.
Were does that leave our investment. Well – perhaps in pretty good shape actually.
Iraq does have a lot of future potential. The Gurus are somewhat right about Iraq in that regard. They have everything they need to make it – but with a lot of help. The U.S. and the coalition countries can’t let Iraq fail – they would look like dog meat to the rest of the world if they let Iraq fail after we tore them apart. Iraq needs to find a way to re-value their currency to move ahead. They need to get investment into that country to move ahead and they need a real currency.
Iraq itself is making it all real hard though. Read the link about what determines the value of a counties currency. http://ezinearticles.com/?How-are-Currency-Values-Determined?&id=467643
Currently Iraq’s economy is based on a one dollar value for just about everything pertaining to goods and services. They need a currency now with that same value. There was a plan (which they say was postponed for 2013) that would RI/RV the dinar to just under one dollar. You can see for yourself on page 84 (of the report page) not the pdf page # http://www.sigir.mil/files/quarterlyreports/April2012/Report_-_April_2012.pdf#view=fit
I would expect this plan (how ever they will do it) to be implemented as soon as possible at this point. That certainly doesn’t mean this weekend or even this fiscal year.
Gurus say the smart cards are loaded and ready. The problem is the Gurus are leading you to believe these smart cards are something they are not. I read the article – you should as well. http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/8901032-the-end-of-the-seventh-international-smart-card-will-be
It seems to me the smart cards are nothing more than a debit master card – which is actually good. Everyone in Iraq is using the dollar. That’s good and bad. Good because they need to round up the dinars in preparation for a RI/RV. Bad because if no one uses the dinar it loses value. Read the link on what increases value of a countries currency. With everyone using debit cards that issue is resolved. It seems as though preparations are being made to implement the RI/RV plan. Hopefully it will be soon.