4-29-13 Eagle1: I’m still of the opinion — strong opinion, in fact — that we are going to see this thing pop by or before Tuesday. There are many reasons for that opinion.
There have been some expressions of concern regarding the increased violence in country as being a cause for holding things up. I’ve dismissed those concerns because I believe they are exaggerated. We have seen an uptick in the violence in Iraq, but consider this: for all the deaths caused by violence and terrorism in Iraq in the past week, the city of Detroit had more deaths by violence — murder, really — in the past week than Iraq had with all the bombings.
The media plays on this violence and sensationalizes it so that it appears far worse than it really is. Let me take this one more step: California saw more deaths by auto accident in the past week than Iraq suffered in the bombings. Does that give you some perspective?
We’ve talked about the need to see the M2 figures come up in Iraq prior to the RI/RV. In the past 72 hours the M2 numbers have increased by 180%! That’s not small potatoes, folks!
There’s been a fair amount of discussion here on the forum about the need for Chapter VII to be lifted, and I’ve seen the nonsensical articles coming out of Kuwait. Folks, that is nothing but smoke! Think about this for a minute: we know that continued DFI protection had to be in place not later than April 22 for that protection and oversight to remain in place after May 22. It was not! How do you think the M2 figures took such a sudden jump in the past 72 hours?
We believe that Chapter VII has already been lifted, and in fact has been removed for many days. With Chapter VII out of the way, there would be no need for continued DFI protection. In the past 72 hours we’ve been watching as literally trillions of dollars have been moving back to the CBI.
I don’t have hard evidence of it yet, but it appears that these monies are the DFI funds that were being held at BofA and Citibank in NY. There are lots of reasons for the movement of these funds, but let me point out just one:
the addition of these resources gives the CBI plenty of additional support to release the IQD/IQN to the world.
MH_Countryboy posted an article on the currency exchange rules that are an addendum to the Dodd-Frank regulations, speculating that the May 13 date these rules go into effect might have some indication as to the RI (post 83). They don’t really have a thing to do with it, folks.
As I have previously noted, these rules are there to enable banks to get into FOREX trading where they have been previously blocked. This is not about taking your IQD or VND into the bank and having restrictions on how much you can exchange.
If we assume that these rules are somehow related to the RI/RV, I believe we can safely conclude that they only signal the fact that the release of the new rate internationally would have to come prior to May 13.
I won’t speak for Frank on this, but for myself. That said, folks, Buckle your Seat Belt! Now that I’ve kinda gotten into Memphis’ or Z’s analytical territory, let me extricate myself and leave this business to them. They’re better at it than I am. I’ll stick mostly to banking issues where it concerns the RI, if you don’t mind.
OK, one last answer. I do expect to meet with Frank in person in the next 24-72 hours. I’ll leave the topic of our meeting for you to play with in your leisure!